Vantage Estimator

Cost S-curve (probability of coming in at or under)

Sensitivity — what moves the total most

Each bar is how much the total estimate could swing (low→high) if that item hits its risk range — a measure of risk, not the item's cost. Tune ranges under Refine.

Confidence levels & distribution

Cash flow — monthly spend & cumulative draw

Planned spend across the project (half-S ramp). Duration months

Cost distribution (Monte Carlo)

The spread of 10,000 simulated outcomes — the shape of the risk. P50 & P80 marked.

Contingency waterfall

How the point estimate plus risk contingency builds up to the P80 budget. Scope

Cost breakdown

Detailed editor — line items, methods & risk (%)

ItemMethodInputsRisk lo / likely / hiValue

Markups

Custom line items

Direct + markups (point)—

Advanced rigor

Market correlation between items — ρ = 0.50

Higher ρ = items move together (systemic risk) → wider tail, more contingency.

Risk distribution model (all items)

Sensitivity — what moves the total most

Bar = how much the total could swing (low→high) from each item's risk range, not its cost.

Cross-checks — estimate an item a second way

Item

Second method

Project