Vantage Estimator

Cost S-curve (probability of coming in at or under)

Sensitivity — what moves the total most

Each bar is how much the total estimate could swing (low→high) if that item hits its risk range — a measure of risk, not the item's cost. Tune ranges under Refine.

Confidence levels & distribution

Cash flow — monthly spend & cumulative draw

Planned spend across the project (half-S ramp). Duration months

Cost distribution (Monte Carlo)

The spread of 10,000 simulated outcomes — the shape of the risk. P50 & P80 marked.

Contingency waterfall

How the point estimate plus risk contingency builds up to the P80 budget. Scope

Cost breakdown

Labor / material / equipment — direct cost

The cost drivers, split across the estimate (before markups). Set each line's split under Refine (build-up L$ / M$ / E$, or the L% on allocated lines).

Detailed editor — line items, methods & risk (%)

ItemMethodInputsDist · risk lo / likely / hiValue

Markups

Custom line items

Direct + markups (point)—

Risk analysis

Labor-market correlation — ρ = 0.50 Materials / commodity correlation — ρ = 0.60

Labor moves with the labor market; materials spike together with commodities. Higher ρ within a group = more systemic risk → wider tail, more contingency. Each line's labor/material split (set in Refine) decides how much rides in each group.

Split risk by component — separate material & equipment bands per line in Refine

Materials and equipment are often more volatile than labor. When on, each line in Refine gets separate risk bands (L / M / E), pre-seeded wider for material & equipment — tune each tail independently.

Default risk distribution (sets every item)

Override any single item's distribution in Refine (the Dist column).

Estimate class → default risk ranges (AACE-style accuracy)

Sets every line's low/high range to that class's accuracy band. Fine-tune individual lines afterward in Refine.

Sensitivity — what moves the total most

Bar = how much the total could swing (low→high) from each item's risk range, not its cost.

Cross-checks — estimate an item a second way

Independently re-estimate a line item, compare it to the primary number, and flag divergences over 15%. Validation only — it never changes your total.

Item

Second method

Escalation — carry costs to your spend year

Unit costs are in base-year dollars. Escalate labor and material separately to the project's performance midpoint. Off by default.

Apply escalation

Cost base year

Duration (months, optional)

Escalate to (midpoint yr)

Labor escalation %/yr

Material escalation %/yr

Equipment escalation %/yr

Risk register — named risks that could hit

Discrete risks, each with a chance of occurring and a $ impact if it does. They feed the Monte Carlo on top of line-item ranges — raising P80 & contingency, not the point estimate.

RiskLikelihood %Impact if it hits — low / likely / high $

Project